Do you know why the house always wins eventually when it comes to casino games? With casino games, we are able to solve for the probability of any given outcome mathematically.

Over/Under- When betting on an over/under, you are betting on the final score of the game. For example, if you bet on Braves/Marlins Over 9, you win the bet if the teams score over 9 runs in the game. Moneyline- Betting on the moneyline means you are betting purely on the team to win straight up. There are no spreads with money line bets. Using Full Cover Bets on sports betting Multiple parlay bets exist in two different types: the ones you have to choose which combinations you bet on and the so-called full cover bets, where all possible combinations are covered by just clicking once and placing the same amount on every bet choice.

So, when you spin a roulette wheel, there’s a 1-in-38 chance of the ball landing on the number that you bet. The casino sets the odds so that correct picks pay out 36-to-1, and so the math works out in such a way that the house always has a significant advantage over the gamblers.

Fortunately for sports bettors, the probability of winning or losing a sporting event is less certain. Numerous factors influence the outcome, and without having definite expectations determined by the number of cards or dice, sportsbooks are forced to try and set the odds based on their own research.

Furthermore, when the bookmaker sets their line, they aren’t trying to accurately predict the probability of each outcome happening.

A sportsbook’s goal when they set the odds of a contest is to entice bettors to place an equal amount of wagers on each side, guaranteeing the book makes a profit.

So once they’ve crunched the numbers and predicted the probability of each outcome happening, they adjust the odds to bring in action on both sides. The odds that are set then carry a certain implied probability, which is the number we base our wagers on.

In order to become a successful sports bettor, you must do your own statistical analysis. The goal is to identify variables that have a strong influence on the outcome of a contest or event and calculate your individual probabilities for each possible result. The last step is to compare your percentages of likelihood against the implied expectations set by the bookmaker.

Winning sports gamblers only make a wager when a bet has positive value. A gamble is said to have value when the implied probability based on the odds is a lower percentage than the likelihood you calculated from your own analysis.

That’s the whole name of the game; if your math says that Team A will win this contest 45% of the time, but the odds mean Team A would only need to win 20% of the time to break even, that’s bet has value.

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But how do we accurately determine the probability so that we have a number to compare against the odds? We have to create betting systems based on statistical analysis and probability distributions. This guide is meant to help you understand how handicapping is done and get you started.